Farole, Safia Abukar. 2022. “Local Electoral Institutions and the Dynamic Motivations of Ethnic Party Candidate Nominations in South Africa.” Comparative Politics. (Forthcoming)

How do parties historically dominated by one group diversify their representatives? I argue that ethnic parties adjust their strategies according to the institutional rules in place and the demographics of relevant constituencies. I study South Africa, which has a Mixed-Member Proportional electoral system, where parties nominate Single Member District and Proportional Representation candidates. Using original data on the racial, ethnic, and career background of over 10,000 local candidates nominated by the historically white Democratic Alliance party, I find that the party engages in vote-based inclusion by nominating black candidates to predominantly black districts. And while the DA symbolically includes non-whites on its PR lists, white candidates dominate electable list positions. These findings provide a demonstration at the micro-level of why ethnic parties struggle to meaningfully diversify.

Matthew Sternberg, Philip Rocco, and Safia Abukar Farole. 2022. “Calling in ‘Sick’: COVID-19, Pretext, and Subnational Democracy.”Global Studies Quarterly. (Forthcoming)

As governments sought to manage the Coronavirus pandemic, many pursed temporary increases in centralized authority, a general tactic of crisis management. However, in some countries, public health was not the only motive for centralization. The COVID-19 response coincided with broader worldwide trends towards autocratization. Some of these efforts happened while the world was preoccupied with responding to the pandemic without concretely referencing Coronavirus; however, in other cases, public health rationales are clearly and explicitly invoked as a pretext for actions that instead aid the consolidation of regime authority. This has been especially pernicious in subnational politics, where efforts have been made to undermine the ability of opposition parties to fairly contest local and regional politics. This paper examines four cases in which political actors either opportunistically used distraction from the COVID-19 pandemic or explicitly invoked public health while seeking to undermine long-term political contestation in their jurisdictions: Hong Kong, Hungary, Uganda, and the United States. We characterize the use of pandemic response as pretext or opportunity for undermining opposition parties, recentralizing political authority in dominant actors, and inhibiting the fair contestation of elections.

Farole, Safia Abukar. 2021. “Eroding Support from Below: Performance in Local Government and Opposition Party Growth in South Africa.”  Government and Opposition, 1- 20.

How does support for opposition parties grow in dominant party systems? Most scholarship on the rise of competitive elections in dominant party regimes focuses on elite defections from the ruling party and coordination by opposition parties as key explanations, but there is less focus on how politics at the local level contributes to opposition victories. This article argues that effective service delivery in local government helps opposition parties grow support in local elections. Examining the case of the Democratic Alliance (DA) in South Africa, this article provides a systematic analysis of local elections and opposition party performance. Using an original data set of electoral, census and spatial data at the lowest electoral unit in South Africa (the ward), this article shows that in the areas where it is incumbent party, support for the DA grows as the delivery of basic services to non-white households improves, and when DA-run wards outperform the neighboring ones run by the ruling African National Congress party, support for the DA increases in neighbouring wards. Overall, this study contributes to our understanding of how local politics erode dominant party rule.

Farole, Safia Abukar. 2022. “Local Elections Under a Pandemic: Service Delivery Hardship and the Decline in Ruling Party Support in South Africa.” (Working Paper)

How does the COVID-19 crisis impact support for incumbent parties in local elections? I study this question in the context of South Africa, which has been governed at the national level by the African National Congress party for 27 years. I argue that ANC supporters who experienced more difficulty accessing local services during the pandemic were less likely to support the party in the November 2021 local election. Using pre-election data from a nationally representative survey of 1,000 citizens, I find that ANC supporters who experienced difficulty accessing electricity, water, social grants, and food relief, were more likely to disengage from politics or to support opposition parties. Exposure to coronavirus cases and deaths due to COVID-19 did not explain party support. Attribution of blame toward the government for its inadequate response to the pandemic is a stronger mechanism than theories that emphasize government assistance and government outreach. These results show that the local dynamics of the pandemic recovery impacts the stability of support for ruling dominant parties.

Farole, Safia Abukar and Elif Sari Genc. 2022. “Gender Quotas and the Sustainable Representation of Women in South Africa’s Local Elections”. (Working Paper)  

Do gender quota policies lead to the sustainable representation of women in politics? While studies show that women’s representation tends to be higher in countries that use proportional representation (PR) rules, few studies examine the effectiveness of quotas in contexts where parallel electoral rules exist. Does women’s representation in the quota-mandated PR tier spill-over into the SMD tier? We study this question in the context of South Africa, which has a mixed electoral system, and where parties can voluntarily decide to adopt gender quotas. Specifically, we examine women’s local representation in the ruling African National Congress party, which applies a quota policy only to its PR tier. We argue that the PR tier is slow to promote women’s representation in district elections because PR seats are a more desirable stepping stone to more powerful subnational office. Using data on the gender, race and ethnic identities, and career trajectories of over 10,000 local ANC candidates, we find that experience in the quota-mandated PR tier doesn’t increase women’s chances of winning district offices. Also, the ANC doesn’t nominate female SMD candidates in more challenging districts. These findings contribute to our understanding of the role of parties as gatekeepers in women’s representation.